Following the General Election conducted in the United Kingdom in December 2019, the Conservative Party came out victorious winning 43.6% of the vote, and 365 seats. Tory’s landslide majority was the largest one since Margaret Thatcher’s election triumph in 1987.
Boris Johnson dubbed the party’s success a political “earthquake” in a speech directed at his exultant aides. “We have to grapple with the consequences of that, we have to change our own party, we have to rise to the level of events, we must, we just answer the challenge that the British people have given us.”
Despite the promising beginning of his prime ministerial career, and the turbulence surrounding his persona, the beginning of 2022 does not bode well for his political fate. A senior civil servant report on rule-breaking parties held at 10 Downing Street during stringent lockdown measures has propelled the now notorious Partygate scandal.
The inappropriateness of these gatherings triggered rage up and down the country, considering the excruciatingly painful restrictions that the British society had to obey. According to many, Boris Johnson’s days in office are numbered.
This inevitably stirred speculations on the future Conservative Party leader. It has to be a bold political figure, having the potential to restore the electorate’s trust in the moral principles of the party. Despite Johnson’s multiple flaws, his sharp wit and tousled allure were qualities embraced by millions of voters.
Although very different from Johnson, one such figure may prove to be the current Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee and Member of Parliament for Tonbridge and Malling, Tom Tugendhat.
As the leadership race would be a challenging one, we would like to draw attention to one of the strong contenders.
Tom Tugendhat’s Biography
Born in 1973, Thomas Georg John Tugendhat grew up in London and Sellindge, near Ashford, and attended St Paul’s School, London. Later, he studied Theology at Bristol University, along with working at the local homeless shelter. He also did a Masters degree course in Islamic studies at Cambridge University, including learning Arabic in Yemen. Tugendhat is the son of a High Court judge and nephew of Lord Tugendhat, a fellow Tory.
Before embarking on a distinguished military career, he was occupied with journalism in the Middle East. He was actively involved in writing about the conflict there, as well as local political and economic issues. Tugendhat initiated one of the first public relations businesses in Lebanon. The venture was a successful one, winning some major international clients. On his return to the United Kingdom, he worked as a management consultant and energy analyst for some time before joining the Territorial Army.
When the Iraq conflict escalated and the war broke out in 2003, Tugendhat was called up to serve with the Royal Marines as an intelligence officer. He was also involved in the programme for economic reconstruction.
In 2005 he was asked by the Foreign Office to go to Afghanistan and support the expansion of the National Security Council. As a member of this council was promoted to governor of Helmand Province, he asked Tugendhat to serve as his primary adviser.
After two years in Afghanistan, he returned to the United Kingdom where he was asked again to go back to Helmand and he served operationally for two years. In recognition of his contribution and dedication to the country, Tugendhat received an MBE (The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire).
Currently, Tugendhat lives near Edenbridge with his wife and their two children. The politician has even admitted that he had to change his young daughter’s nappy while simultaneously giving a live interview over the telephone. He has even jokingly described the experience as “Radio Roulette”.
Political Views
After a prolonged career in the Armed Forces, Tugendhat entered politics and is known to be one of the most outspoken critics of the Government.
Tom Tugendhat on the War in Afghanistan
During the fall of Kabul in August 2021, the Tory MP has openly shared his opinion of the handling of the Afghanistan crisis by world leaders and the chaos of the evacuation that followed.
Boris Johnson has expressed “a great sense of regret that we are not able to get everybody out in this first phase” when asked to comment on the crisis.
With so many urgently willing to leave the now Taliban-ruled country, the Prime Minister addressed those eligible to come to the United Kingdom, stating that the government will make everything possible to do that. He added that the achievements of the UK Armed Forces should not be underestimated in any case.
Many of the senior Tory backbenchers were filled with regret over the abandonment of so many vulnerable people. In August 2021, Tom Tugendhat has delivered a moving speech at the House of Commons regarding the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Many were touched by the heart-wrenching stories told by the former soldier, and his overwhelming emotions of anguish and wrath over the country falling to the Taliban: “Like many veterans, this last week has seen me struggle through anger, grief and rage—through the feeling of abandonment of not just a country, but the sacrifice that my friends made.”
The MPs have applauded Tom Tugendhat for his speech, and some of them praised him, saying that his profound reflections would be always remembered.
The speech my friend and colleague @TomTugendhat just made in the Chamber is one I will remember for the rest of my life.
Tom, thank you for sharing your experiences and reflections. I am so proud to know you.
— Dehenna Davison MP (@DehennaDavison) August 18, 2021
China Research Group
The China Research Group was set up in April 2020 by a group of politicians, led by Tory MPs Tom Tugendhat and Neil O’Brien to promote better awareness of China’s global role in economics and the country’s ambitions in that aspect. Though formed by Conservative MPs, representatives of other parties are also participating in the group.
The main issues concerning the group include China’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak, as well as its industrial and foreign policy. The group is intended to promote discussions and novel ideas about Britain’s response to the rise of China.
In regards to the goals of this group, the Chinese government banned its members, and those from similar organizations from entering China, Hong Kong, and Macau.
– Why did the Chinese government target big tech?
– How have US sanctions accelerated China's semiconductor development?
– Where should the UK's strategic priorities lie in tech?🎙️ @ruima, @China_Digital and @J_B_C16 discuss China's tech landscape.https://t.co/juJI7o719u
— China Research Group (@ChinaResearchGp) February 11, 2022
Potential Conservative Leadership Contest
As a consequence of the Partygate scandal, Boris Johnson’s position is increasingly vulnerable and he is obviously preoccupied with an overwhelming feeling of insecurity. The Prime Minister is currently striving to regain the support within his party.
However, a number of Tory lawmakers have called on their leader to resign, and others have already quit themselves. Should the Chairman of the 1922 Committee receive a total of 54 no-confidence letters, a leadership vote is about to be triggered.
It is interesting to note that Tom Tugendhat was the first Tory to openly declare his intention to stand in a potential Leadership Contest provided that the necessary threshold is met. He went on to add that it would be a “huge privilege” to occupy the prime ministerial post and that anyone able to gain the support of their colleagues should go for the challenge.
Some have shared the opinion that the lack of a ministerial experience would frustrate voters. According to others, Tugendhat needs to deliver a clear vision on domestic policy, since everybody is already aware of his international political views.
“I think it’s a position of absolute integrity to say that of course, you should offer yourself to the electorate if you think you can do it.”, the centrist Tory confirmed. He went on to comment that he is equally proud to serve his country as a diplomat as once in the role of a soldier.
Bookmaker’s Odds of Tom Tugendhat’s Becoming the Next Conservative Party Leader
Tom Tugendhat has already garnered the support of several centrist Tory MPs and although bookmakers’ odds show a couple of other stronger pretenders, his name is becoming more and more popular as a feasible option. His supporters claim that he is suitable for the high-ranking post and that he would be able to deliver a fresh start for the Conservative party.
In the table below, punters interested in political betting may examine and compare the odds offered by 10 leading bookmakers on Tom Tugendhat’s chances to become the next Prime Minister:
| bet365 | Sky Bet | Paddy Power | William Hill | Betfair | Betvictor | Coral | Unibet | MansionBet | Ladbrokes |
| 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 13/2 | 7 |
The favourites to replace Boris Johnson, according to many engaged in politics and online bookmakers are Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, and Jeremy Hunt. Betting odds on these frontrunners are also available.
| bet365 | Sky Bet | Paddy Power | William Hill | Betfair | Betvictor | Coral | Unibet | MansionBet | Ladbrokes | |
| Rishi Sunak | 13/8 | 1 | 13/8 | 6/4 | 13/8 | 6/4 | 6/4 | 5/4 | 6/4 | 6/4 |
| Liz Truss | 11/2 | 5 | 5 | 11/2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9/2 | 5 | 6 |
| Jeremy Hunt | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 13/2 | 13/2 | 8 |
Theoretically, the chances of Tom Tugendhat are comparable to those of Jeremy Hunt, with Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss leading the potential leadership race.
When asked about the possible opportunities to serve the country, the current Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee depicted them as “winning the lottery”. Considering the multiple debates between Tugendhat and Johnson in committee hearings over various political issues, the disciplined persona of the first is often seen as the exact opposite of the flamboyant character of the second. And that may turn out to be Tugendhat’s trump card if Johnson is forced to resign.
- Author
Daniel Williams
