Who Has the Best Chances of Becoming the Next UK Prime Minister

Mon 14 Feb 2022 10.27 Harry Evans

Next UK Prime Minister The last few weeks have seen the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing increased pressure to step down over the “Partygate” scandal and accusations that he intervened to authorise Afghan animal evacuation. The latest revelations of the lockdown-breaching parties that took place at his official residence, along with the leaked information regarding his alleged interference to help animal evacuation from Afghanistan have put his future at the leadership position into question.

Almost three years ago, Johnson led the Tories to the Party’s latest election victory in decades. However, he is currently in big trouble, with his own criticising him about taking part in the parties and social gatherings involving some Government officials during the coronavirus pandemic in the UK.

The “Partygate” Scandal in Short

“Partygate” Scandal For several months now, Mr Joshnson has been struggling with a series of damning reports about parties taking place in his official residence while strict Covid-19 lockdown rules were in force for the country. According to the report issued after the internal inquiry of Sue Gray, 10 Downing Street allegedly hosted about 16 social events, with 12 being absolutely enough for the police to investigate.

The claims made by Ms Gray triggered an enormous public response, considering the fact that the UK Government banned almost all social contact for months after the coronavirus pandemic outbreak, and then kept more relaxed, but still harsh restrictions for an even longer period. The latest update of Sue Gray’s inquiry report provided no details about any parties taking place at Prime Minister Johnson’s official residence and it did not criticise him directly for breaching the rules that seem to be in place for everyone else but a few chosen individuals in the country.

Ms Gray, however, confirmed that a number of events where Mr Johnson was present were being examined by the police and described some of the gatherings as a serious failure to remain in line with the high standards expected not only by Government officials but all British population at the time.

The “Partygate” affair, however, triggered an extremely large public response and brought harsh criticism upon Mr Johnson’s head.

UK Prime Minister Authorised Afghan Animal Evacuation

Afghan Animal Evacuation The claims that he prioritised helping to get the animals of a certain charity out of Kabul rather than helping Afghan people out, which Boris Johnson described as “complete nonsense”, seem very real now, according to emails leaked by an official in the Office of Minister Zac Goldsmith.

A number of emails that were released by a select committee and leaked by the whistleblower, however, suggest that the Prime Minister was personally involved and intervened in the evacuation of the animals of the Nowzad charity, which is managed by Pen Farthing, a former Royal Marine.

Nowzad operated an animal clinic, cat and dog shelter and donkey sanctuary in Afghanistan. When control of Kabul was taken over by the Taliban, the charity’s supporters rolled out an evacuation campaign, claiming that the organisation’s staff were in danger because of their work with foreign organisations. Campaigners also claimed that the animals were at risk. As a result of the campaign, about 15,000 people were air-evacuated from the country in August 2021, including Mr Farthing and 150 animals. Although his staff members were left behind, they managed to later get to Pakistan safely.

Although the animals’ airlift was funded by donations, the UK Government sponsored clearance for it, which resulted in allegations that its rescue effort had prioritised animals’ lives over people. The fact that the UK Prime Minister lied about it did not make things easier either for him or for the Government, especially now, with the whistleblower’s revelations coming to the spotlight.

Now, with the “Partygate” scandal also boiling, both his fellow Conservative Party members and British society wonder if Mr Johnson can be trusted.

Three Most Possible Case Scenarios Regarding Mr Johnson’s Fate as UK Prime Minister

British Lawmakers Could Force the Prime Minister Out of Service

British Lawmakers Could Force the Prime Minister Out of Service It is not easy for the public to get rid of a Prime Minister in the UK, but it is also not impossible. Considering the fact that, usually, the leader of the political party holding the parliamentary majority takes the position of Prime Minister, the party could force its leader out and choose another one, making a major shift in the position without even organising a general election.

Under the rules of the Tories, its Members of Parliament can hold a no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson’s leadership in case at least 54 of them write to the chair of the 1922 Committee to withdraw their support from the Prime Minister. The MPs are not required to reveal whether they sent such a letter or not. The no-confidence vote has binding power.

In case a no-confidence vote is held, Mr Johnson would be able to remain in his role if he manages to win a simple majority of his Conservative Party lawmakers. His fellow Tories would then be stripped of the opportunity to hold another no-confidence vote in a year, unless the rules were changed meanwhile.

Prime Minister’s Position Could Be Undermined by Fellow Lawmakers

Prime Minister’s Position Could Be Undermined Rebellions of cabinet members are not that uncommon and they are usually to be taken pretty seriously because they can actually destabilise Prime Ministers to a point they are pushed toward the exit of their leadership.

The history of the UK remembers that the resignation of Geoffrey Howe triggered Margaret Thatcher’s demise in 1990, while almost three decades later, in 2018, Mr Johnson became one of the few ministers who decided to quit their positions and destabilised Theresa May in her leadership.

So far, the cabinet’s discipline has been more or less kept pretty stable by Mr Johson. One senior minister, David Frost, stepped down in 2021 after citing policy differences, while a junior Treasury minister filed his resignation in January 2022 as a form of protest at what he described as a failure to mitigate fraud in the coronavirus relief funds.

Probably the most significant resignation in the current Government came from outside the cabinet – one of Mr Johnson’s aides who have worked with him for more than a decade and was his chief policy adviser in No 10, Munira Mirza, quit her job on February 4th. At the time, Ms Mirza tabled a letter in which she criticised Mr Johnson for his serious “error of judgement” over the insulting remark he recently made in regard to the opposition leader.

Boris Johnson Could Resign Although It Currently Seems Highly Unlikely

The Prime Minister Although some senior Conservative Party members have suggested that resignation is unlikely to be filed, or at least for the time being, most of the participants in a recent survey felt that Boris Johnson should step down. The survey, which was held among 3,681 British adults, also showed that over 0% of the Conservative voters are still supporting Mr Johnson, with 51% of them saying he should remain as Prime Minister of the UK.

A former Member of Parliament from the Conservative Party, Lord Barwell, who served as chief of staff in the cabinet of PM Theresa May from 2017 to 2019, said he does not believe that Boris Johnson would voluntarily leave office.

Considering the fact that the Prime Minister recently had telephone calls with some of his colleagues and tried to persuade them that the changes implemented at 10 Downing Street are significant, it seems highly unlikely he willingly resigns from his position at this point.

Who Could Replace Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister?

New Prime Minister It is not easy to estimate the prospects of Mr Johnson for remaining in his leadership. The truth is that his critics are not likely to force a confidence vote unless being sure that he would lose. Analysts say that such an outcome could be near but, for the time being, there is no consensus on the one who would come as his successor at the Prime Minister’s position.

For the majority of Tori lawmakers, the question of whether a leadership change would help them is an issue of paramount importance. So far non of the potential successors of Borish Johnson have shown they are able to match the appeal demonstrated by him at the time when he led the Conservative Party to the historic victory in 2019. Furthermore, most of them seem to be expecting to see the full report of Sue Gray’s inquiry, considering the revelations made by her recently seem unlikely to decide the matter.

In any case, things do not look well for the Government, and the “Partygate” and the Afghan animal evacuation authorisation revelations are not the only ones to blame for the current situation. Inflation is rapidly soaring, energy bills are increasing, and interest rates have already risen just as Prime Minister Johnson is preparing to raise taxes.

With this in mind, the enemies of Mr Johnson are circling around what seems to be the Government coming to an early grave. Questions about who could replace Boris Johnson in the leadership position remains open.

Here are the political figures that are considered to be having the best chances of becoming the next Prime Minister of the UK:

Tom Tugendhat

Tom Tugendhat Tom Tugendhat has been serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. Reportedly, the 48-year-old former soldier who served in Afghanistan and Iraq is supported as a potential replacement for Boris Johnson by centrist Conservative Party Members of Parliament.

In January, the MP who currently represents Tonbridge and Malling has confirmed that he would run for the Prime Minister’s position in case a contest is held soon, adding he would be honoured if he occupied the leadership role. This made him the first Member of Parliament who openly confirmed that he would participate in a Conservative party leadership contest if there is any.

The fact that Tugendhat does not have ministerial experience has become one of the main reasons why he has been considered an outsider for Boris Johnson’s succession. However, his hame is increasingly appearing as a viable option, with a former cabinet minister even confirming that he would be his first choice if there is a contest for the Prime Minister’s seat. For the time being, Mr Tugendhat has an important ally in the levelling-up secretary Michael Gove but still remains among the less popular options as Johnson’s replacement among his fellow party members.

Tugendhat himself said he had not been canvassing support but he said that, in his opinion, one should offer themselves to the country’s electorate in case they believed they could successfully operate in the leadership position. He still acknowledged that the Conservative Party’s overall support would be needed if one decides to participate in such a contest.

Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak Rishi Sunak has been occupying the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer since February 2020. After being appointed at the job shortly before the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak, Mr Sunak was the one who created the UK furlough scheme, as well as several other financial support measures that have been implemented in the country during the lockdowns associated with the coronavirus crisis.

The 41-year-old former Goldman Sachs banker and head fund manager has been pointed out as an early favourite for the replacement of Mr Johnson in the leadership position. Shortly after the “Partygate” revelations were made, he refused to get “into hypotheticals” when asked if the Prime Minister should step down if he is found to have lied to Parliament.

A recent poll by Opinium showed that almost 50% of Conservative Party members believe that Rishi Sunak would be the best choice to take Boris Johnson’s position.

Although he has been considered one of the most possible political figures to replace Mr Johnson in the leadership seat, he has lately been out of the media spotlight, with reports suggesting he is taking a more independent approach to the Prime Minister. The finance minister still remains the bookmakers’ favourite to become the next Prime Minister of the UK, being praised for the successful rescue package for the country’s economy and the jobs retention programme that prevented mass unemployment from coming upon British citizens during the Covid-19 crisis.

Days ago, Mr Sunak has admitted to attending the 2020 birthday party of Prime Minister Johnson that took place during coronavirus lockdown but refused to provide further details on what happened at the time he entered the room and said that he was actually attending 10 Downing Street for a meeting focused on the Covid-19 situation. His confession came after five aides of Mr Johnson, including Munira Mirza, stepped down from their posts at the beginning of February. Whether the confessions could jeopardise Mr Sunak’s prospects for taking the Prime Minister’s role remains to be seen.

Liz Truss

Liz Truss Liz Truss has been serving as Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019 and Foreign Secretary since 2021. She has been compared with the country’s former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher after a picture of her sitting in an Army tank during a trip to Estonia appeared in November 2021.

The 46-year-old Tory Party member, who has already served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson, was promoted to the Foreign Office in September 2021 after Dominic Raab faced harsh public backlash for the way he handled the Afghanistan crisis.

During a recent interview on BBC Breakfast, Ms Truss, who is known for her carefully cultivated public image and, at the same time, for some bizarre political interventions, shared that she supported Boris Johnson in his leadership role and would like to see him keep his role.

Although she said that Boris Johnson is “doing an excellent job” and reiterated her support for the Prime Minister, Ms Truss, who is seen as a potential candidate for the leadership’s seat in case Johnson is ousted, avoided answering some questions regarding the possibility to run for PM if a leadership ballot was held. As for the “Partygate” scandal, she noted that Mr Johnson had acknowledged the error and apologised. She reminded that the country’s economic recovery should be considered more important, saying that delivering the best economic prospects to the British people was among the major concerns of the Prime Minister.

Michael Gove

Michael Gove Michael Gove has been occupying the role of Minister for Intergovernmental Relations and Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities since 2021. So far, he has held a series of Cabinet positions and even launched a leadership bid in 2019, following the resignation of former PM Theresa May, at which he finished third.

Back in 2016, the 54-year-old British politician, journalist and author revealed he would support Mr Johnson as the new leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, respectively, following the resignation of Mr James Cameron. Only a couple of hours before Boris Johnson announced himself as a candidate for the leadership position, Mr Gove revealed that he was running for the role himself, ruining his fellow Tory member’s chances.

According to Mr Gove, the current Prime Minister should not file his resignation over the aforementioned “Partygate” scandal. He defended Johnson, saying there is no evidence of any abuse of funding or power, after the former Tory MP who defected to the Labour Party, Christian Wakeford, alleged he received warning that funding for a new school in his constituency could be discontinued in case he rebelled in a vote regarding free school meals.

So far, Mr Gove has reiterated his full support for Boris Johnson at the Prime Minister position.

Jeremy Hunt

In his political career so far, Jeremy Hunt has occupied a number of roles in the Cabinet, with his most recent job being a foreign secretary in the Government of Prime Minister Theresa May until May 2019. Since 2020, he has been serving as Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee.

When talking about the aspirations of Mr Hunt to succeed Boris Johnson as the UK Prime Minister, we should note that such an effort is not new to him. Back in 2019, following the departure of the then-PM Theresa May, he launched a leadership bid and came second to Mr Johnson.

Recently, when The House magazine asked him whether he was considering a run for the Prime Minister’s seat, the 55-year-old former health secretary denied such intentions. Still, he left the door open for further action, as he explained that his ambition for the leadership has not vanished completely, but making him consider a possible application would take serious persuasion.

Despite he has had a much quieter life as a backbench Member of Parliament since he was defeated by Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership competition, Jeremy Hunt has been considered one of the political figures who could do a great job at the position, should Johnson leaves his role. As a high-profile member of the Conservative Party, Mr Hunt has managed to largely improve the negative image he got while he was health secretary at the administrations of PM Cameron and PM May.

Sajid Javid

Sajid Javid Another experienced Cabinet member, who has been considered as one of the individuals with the best chances to succeed Boris Johnson at the Prime Minister’s seat, is Sajid Javid. The 52-year-old politician has served as Home Secretary from 2018 to 2019. He also occupied the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer in the period 2019-2020. In June 2021, he was appointed as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care.

Mr Javid has already demonstrated that he has had higher political ambitions by launching leadership bids back in 2016 and 2019. At the time he rolled out a leadership application in 2016, he partnered with Stephen Crabb for a joint campaign, but the pair decided to later withdraw from the competition. Three years later, Mr Javid was ranked fourth behind Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.

Since he assumed the role of Health Secretary last year, he has been among the supporters of Mr Johnson. In an interview for Sky News, he shared that the calls of the Tory grandee David Davis for Boris Johnson to resign from his leadership position had a negative impact on the Government. Mr Javid shared that he was aware why the insulting remark made by Johnson regarding Jimmy Savile has become so sensitive of a topic but, in his opinion, the Members of Parliament should simply try to move on from that.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt Penelope (Penny) Mary Mordaunt has been serving as the Member of Parliament for Portsmouth North for more than a decade now. In 2021, she was appointed as Minister of State for Trade Policy.

Despite the recent legal threats against her and the UK Government by the Conservative Party donor Alexander Temerko, the 48-year-old, who has held a number of Cabinet positions so far, including defence secretary, is considered a potential successor for Prime Minister Johnson. Reportedly, Ms Mordaunt has the favour of the so-called Red Wall Members of Parliament elected at the general election in 2019.

Mr Temerko has revealed his intentions to bring unspecified legal action personally against Ms Mordaunt, saying she was the most serious threat to security, after her successful campaign against a £1.2-billion cross-Channel power cable project that was proposed by Aquind, a company Mr Temerko is director of.

After a number of Ministers and aides in the Cabinet resigned earlier this month, Ms Mordaunt also became one of the MPs to be out on “resignation watch”, especially at a time when sources familiar with the situation say that a no-confidence vote is inevitable. Since the rumours of a no-confidence vote in Johnson’s leadership have emerged, Penny Mordaunt has actually been named as one of the most possible MPs who could replace him as leader of the Tories and the Government. In a poll, which was held in December 2021 among Conservative Party leaders, she was ranked as the third most possible Tory member to succeed Mr Johnson in his role.

Dominic Raab

Dominic Raab Dominic Rennie Raab, who has been MP for Esher and Walton since 2010, has been occupying the position of Deputy Prime Miniter of the UK, Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor since 2021. Making a leadership bid would not be new to Mr Raab, as he ran to succeed the PM position in 2019, after Theresa May resigned at the time, but was eliminated in the second ballot.

Following the controversy surrounding Mr Johnson lately, 47-year-old Raab has been revealed by one of the bookmakers’ favourites for the next Prime Minister of the country.

Back in January, Mr Raab defended Johnson, saying that he would manage to deal with the “few hits” he had taken at the time. He has supported the Prime Minister during recent events and ahead of the release of the damning report of Sue Gray into the alleged parties that have taken place at No 10 while there were strict social distancing rules for the rest of the country.

The question is can a Deputy Prime Minister assume the actual Prime Minister’s role. Experts have noted that the Deputy Prime Minister can inherit the position as an interim leader under certain circumstances, although there are some uncertainties regarding the powers such an interim leader would be given in case they need to temporarily occupy the Prime Minister’s role. On the other hand, such a temporary appointment would apply in cases when the PM was incapacitated, which is currently not the case with Boris Johnson.

Nadhim Zahami

Nadhim Zahami Nadhim Zahawi has been considered another potential candidate to replace Boris Johnson at the PM position. He has been among the most familiar faces during the Covid-19 crisis, especially after taking over the role of vaccine minister in November 2020. His success in the position, as part of which he provided regular updates on coronavirus vaccine rollout to Parliament and participated in a few 10 Downing Streets press conferences, has resulted in him being promoted to Education Secretary in September 2021 as part of the Cabinet reshuffle.

Mr Zahawi, 54, already has been part of Theresa May’s Government as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Children and Families back in 2018. Before being granted additional responsibility for the coronavirus vaccination programme, he served as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Business and Industry after Johnson’s appointment at the leadership position.

So far, in his interviews, Mr Zahawi has backed Boris Johnson and has expressed hopes that Johnson was safe in his Prime Minister role. However, he has repeatedly avoided questions on whether he would back the Prime Minister in case he was given a fixed penalty notice by the Metropolitan Police over the ongoing “Partigate” scandal. When asked whether he would continue to support Johnson should such a fine over his involvement in Government officials’ parties that were held during the coronavirus lockdowns in breach of Covid-19 rules, he refused to explicitly do that.

Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer Sir Keir Starmer is the leader of the Labour Party and the leader of the Opposition in the UK since 2020.

Most recently, the name of the Labour Party leader was put in the spotlight after Boris Johnson said that he would not apologise for saying that it was Sir Starmer’s personal failure not to prosecute Jimmy Savile. Although the official spokesperson of the UK Prime Minister acknowledged that Mr Johnson’s words could be misconstrued, they also noted that he had subsequently issued an official statement to clarify the issue.

Earlier this month, Sir Keir Starmer was surrounded and chased by a mob after the Prime Minister falsely accused him of protecting Jimmy Savile from prosecution.

The leader of the Labour Party has already called on Johnson to step down from the PM role. The Labour Party has traditionally been the greatest rival of the Conservative Party. Currently, they lead the latest YouGov poll with 37%, followed by the Tories with 33%.

Next UK Prime Minister to Succeed Boris Johnson
Ladbrokes:Paddy Power:William Hill:Sky Bet:BetVictor:Betfred:Unibet:
Tom Tugendhat9/17/18/19/19/19/17/1
Rishi Sunak13/813/86/411/813/87/45/4
Liz Truss7/15/113/26/16/17/15/1
Michael Gove20/114/116/122/116/125/120/1
Jeremy Hunt8/16/18/115/27/19/17/1
Sajid Javid25/114/116/118/116/125/117/1
Penny Mordaunt12/110/112/110/112/111/110/1
Dominic Raab14/125/120/125/125/125/120/1
Nadhim Zahawi33/120/128/122/128/133/125/1
Keir Starmer9/1n/a8/115/27/18/17/1
Next UK Prime Minister to Succeed Boris Johnson
Back allLay all
Tom Tugendhat11.5
£37		12
£33		12.5
£28		14.5
£10		17
£10		19.5
£12
Rishi Sunak3.25
£30		3.3
£27		3.35
£10		3.55
£22		3.65
£22		3.8
£10
Liz Truss8
£115		8.2
£51		8.4
£18		8.6
£87		8.8
£65		9
£108
Michael Gove24
£13		25
£11		29
£28		34
£14		36
£15		42
£11
Jeremy Hunt10
£16		10.5
£11		11.5
£19		13
£19		14
£10		15
£51
Sajid Javid22
£20		23
£12		26
£10		30
£18		32
£54		34
£42
Penny Mordaunt18
£20		20
£61		21
£30		24
£14		50
£11		55
£13
Dominic Raab26
£14		28
£13		32
£15		55
£15		65
£10		700
£8
Nadhim Zahawi25
£179		26
£20		32
£11		44
£19		48
£15		240
£11
Keir Starmer8
£51		9
£10		9.2
£20		9.6
£40		10
£25		10.5
£33

Please note:
*Odds may vary from the date of writing
**This information is provided for informative purposes only and does not promote gambling activities

  • Author

Harry Evans

Harry Evans is a long-year journalist with a passion for poker. Apart from a good game of poker, he loves to write which is why he spent several years as an editor of a local news magazine.
Daniel Williams
Casino Guardian covers the latest news and events in the casino industry. Here you can also find extensive guides for roulette, slots, blackjack, video poker, and all live casino games as well as reviews of the most trusted UK online casinos and their mobile casino apps.

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