Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since 2019 has sparked vehement disapproval on the island after reported cases of social gatherings held at Downing Street during Covid-19 pandemic restrictions. Whether a forthcoming Conservative Party leadership election will take place in the United Kingdom as a consequence of the series of scandalous parties is a question the public is highly concerned about.
Considering Johnson’s vulnerable position at the moment and the fact that there is no shortage of potential successors, online bookmakers are already offering bets on who will the next Tory leader be. Along with betting markets on the probable future leaders, interactive bookmakers are offering odds as for the timing of the elections and a possible no-confidence vote. Some bookmakers are also posting prices on whether the current Prime Minister will be the leader at the next General Election.
Read on to find out more details about the intense situation and what the odds are in favour of several politicians who may become the next Conservative Party leader.
A Closer Look at the Partygate Scandal
As per an official report released by British senior civil servant, Sue Gray, a series of social gatherings were held at No. 10 despite the stringent restrictions imposed due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. We are looking further into the report, Johnson’s official statement in the House of Commons, as well as the public opinion on the hot topic.
As a new #PartyGate photo emerges showing Boris Johnson & an open bottle of bubbly at the No10 Xmas quiz here is Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi previously defending the PM because there was “NO alcohol on the table!”
Will the Cabinet Ministers defending the PM never learn! pic.twitter.com/RfVHf1rHAR
— Peter Stefanovic (@PeterStefanovi2) February 9, 2022
Sue Gray’s Report
The investigation into the parties held on government premises has been published on 31 January 2022 and apart from Sue Gray, several other senior servants in the Cabinet Office have also participated in its compilation. The report focuses on several gatherings from May 2020 through to April 2021, all during periods of severe anti-pandemic restrictions. The investigation is backed by interviews, documentary and digital information, as well as e-mails.
According to information from the report, its goal is not to make judgments of any kind, as this is within the jurisdiction of the Metropolitan Police. Consequently, the police authority has confirmed launching an investigation on some of the events included in the report.
As per the opinions expressed in the report, representatives of the Government failed to meet the high expectations that were valid for the whole British population. Other than the lack of appropriateness of the said gatherings, the report also touches on the need for a vigorous policy on the consumption of alcohol in the working environment.
In conclusion, it is suggested that the events in question are to be duly addressed by the Government, irrespective of the police investigations.
Prime Minister’s Statement Following Gray’s Report
The Prime Minister has initially claimed that the events did not break the rules and that he believed they were of a formal, work character.
Following the report by the senior civil servant, the Prime Minister has made a statement in the House of Commons on 31 January 2022. Johnson begins by simply thanking the people who have compiled the report and goes on to pass on his apologies. Further on, he expresses his appreciation of all the sacrifices people were asked to make during the Covid-19 restrictions as well as his understanding of the anger many are experiencing.
Boris Johnson continues his statement assuring that he is aware of the changes that need to be implemented and adds a list of the accomplishments, such as delivering Brexit, the handling of the health crisis, and the subsequent vaccination programme.
In the latest chapter of the #Partygate saga, #BorisJohnson is facing a
fixed penalty notice if "unreasonable' breach of #COVID19 restrictions were detected in the investigation.#UnitedKingdom#DowningStreethttps://t.co/m3BMF2jOA7— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) February 10, 2022
The politician concludes his speech by confirming that the Conservative Party is “going to bring the same energy and commitment to getting on with the job to delivering for the British people.”
The Public Opinion
What would Boris Johnson’s political fate be and that of the Conservative Party is a matter sparking off intense public interest. Brits’ support for their Prime Minister seems to be dwindling every single day, as various surveys point out.
A YouGov research dated from December 08, 2021, inquires 5,523 UK citizens whether they believe the series of parties violated the strict Covid-19 measures. According to 54% of the respondents, those gatherings were definitely in violation of the restrictions, while 25% showed some uncertainty stating that the parties were “probably” breaking the rules. Only 5% are of the opposite opinion and another 1% state that no rules were disobeyed. Some 14% of the surveyed citizens are unsure of their stance.
As per another YouGov’s research conducted on January 25, 2022, among 3,559 adults, 62% of them believe that Boris Johnson should resign from his role as a Prime Minister, while 25% confirm that he should remain in his position. Some 13% of Brits do not express an opinion on the matter.
#BorisJohnson today is travelling to Europe for another round of diplomacy. But at home he is haunted by s new #PartyGate picture which was published by the Mirror. The Met Police is intensifying its investigation. #BBCBreakfast pic.twitter.com/S3ZTJe4pdC
— joop veen (@jbveen) February 10, 2022
According to yet another opinion poll conducted by YouGov on the same day with 3,559 respondents, 74% of the UK citizens think that the Metropolitan Police have rightfully launched an investigation into the social gatherings held on Downing Street, while 15% assume that was wrong. The rest, i.e 12% are undecided.
Letters of No-Conidence
Given the Partygate scandal, Boris Johnson seems to be struggling to reassure MPs about his authority.
As per information, valid as of the first week of February 2022, a total of 15 Tories have publicly expressed an opinion that Boris Johnson should resign, and 9 of them have confirmed that they have already sent a no-confidence letter to the chairman of the 1922 Committee.
The latter is formally known as the Conservative Private Members’ Committee, which consists of all Conservative backbench members of Parliament. Should the Committee receive at least 54 letters, the threshold to prompt a confidence vote will be met.
Sir John Major is expected to accuse Boris Johnson of corroding trust in politics over the "partygate" saga in a bruising intervention to be delivered on Thursday.https://t.co/NO1Vhr0wTu
— Best for Britain (@BestForBritain) February 9, 2022
In case the Prime Minister wins the no-confidence vote, another one could not be possibly held for one year.
Social Media Posts Regarding Partygate
After weeks of reports on multiple parties and ensuing silence on the subject, the Prime Minister made a public statement in the House of Commons apologizing for the whole affair. The opposition leader’s speech, along with the subsequent jeering and laughter mirrored the public opinion across the whole nation, considering people were not allowed to meet more than a single person outside their household at the peak of the health crisis.
Despite Johnson’s remorse and apologies, and his logical desire to fight for his reputation, the situation seems to become even grimmer. The public outrage over the Prime Minister’s handling of the scandal during a health crisis is escalating as he faces daily calls to resign.
Does Mr Johnson have the moral authority to lead the nation and tell people to follow the rules while he does not seem to be doing so?
Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie are expected to be among the 50 people the Met Police is contacting as part of the partygate investigation 👇 https://t.co/pr6hjb9oio
— Evening Standard (@standardnews) February 10, 2022
Who Has the Potential to be the Next Conservative Party Leader?
Former cabinet minister David Davis has shared the public opinion that Boris Jonson should relinquish his Prime Ministerial position, arguing that he expects his leaders “to show the responsibility for the actions they take”.
According to many, replacing Boris Johnson is not going to be an easy feat, as it takes someone who would be capable of revitalising a party that has been in government since 2010. As the Prime Minister faces the escalating jeopardy of forfeiting his leadership over the series of rule-breaking parties, online sportsbooks are offering an ever-growing variety of betting markets related to the hot topic.
| Ladbrokes | Coral | Bwin | Bet365 | 888sport | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak | 13/8 | 13/8 | 7/4 | 6/4 | 5/4 |
| Liz Truss | 7/1 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 13/2 | 5/1 |
| Jeremy Hunt | 8/1 | 8/1 | 7/1 | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| Tom Tugendhat | 9/1 | 9/1 | 8/1 | 9/1 | 13/2 |
| Penny Mordaunt | 12/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 | 12/1 | 10/1 |
*The odds indicated on the table are valid as of the date of writing the report.
We are going to shed some light on the top five frontrunners having the potential to become the next Conservative Party Leader. Interactive sportsbooks are also offering bets on several other less probable alternatives such as Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, and Ben Wallace.
Rishi Sunak
Born in Southampton to Indian British parents and graduated from Stanford’s School of Business, Rishi Sunak is a former banker and investment analyst. He has been Chancellor of the Exchequer since February 2020 and is believed to be among the richest MPs.
Other than that he is also one of the youngest politicians in contemporary politics. Sunak is recognized as the favourite to replace Johnson if the latter is ousted over the Partygate scandal.
Prior to being the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak was Chief Secretary to the Treasury from July 2019 to February 2020. He is considered by many as the most popular Conservative politician due to his polished personality and impeccable family. Due to the pandemic’s inevitable impact on finances, his measures have been openly criticised, as some workers were not eligible for the financial support of the Treasury.
Liz Truss
Elizabeth Mary Truss has been a Conservative Party member since 1996. She is the current Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, a position she assumed in September 2021. She has occupied several other positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron and Theresa May.
Although she was ultimately a supporter of Brexit, she is originally known to be affiliated with Britain Stronger in Europe, a group in favour of Britain’s membership of the European Union. She is also the first female Lord Chancellor in the contemporary history of the office.
Truss is believed to be Sunak’s main rival, as indicated also by the bookmaker’s odds. She has been appointed with the task of overseeing Brexit negotiations, which as some are arguing may undermine her leadership ambitions.
Jeremy Hunt
Born in 1966, and raised in Surrey, Jeremy Hunt studied Politics, Philosophy and Economics at Oxford University. From July 2018 through to July 2019, he held the position of Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs.
Since January 2020 he has assumed the post of Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee. The latter is charged with the task of overseeing the work of the Department of Health and Social Care, including the government policy, and the related expenses and administrative operations.
After serving during David Cameron’s and Theresa May’s term of office, Jeremy Hunt became the longest-standing Health Secretary in the history of British politics in 2018.
Jeremy Hunt finished a runner-up to Boris Johnson in the 2019 Conservative Party leadership election.
Tom Tugendhat
Tom Tugendhat has been the MP for Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before embarking on a political career, he worked as a journalist and a public relations consultant in the Middle East, and occupied a part-time position as an officer in the UK’s Army reserves.
When inquired if he would take part in a potential Conservative party leadership contest, he confirmed that it would be a “huge privilege” to serve as prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Although Tom Tugendhat is considered an outsider to take over Boris Johnson’s position, his name is increasingly cited as a viable variant.
The Tory centrist goes on to express an opinion that he is not in the least embarrassed by his ambition to throw hat into the leadership ring, as serving his country has always made him proud.
Penny Mordaunt
Yet another Tory politician with an eye on No. 10 is Penny Mordaunt, serving as Member of Parliament for Portsmouth North since 2010 and as the current Minister of State for Trade Policy. She has held also numerous other senior roles. Mordaunt is also known to be an avid Brexiteer and has written the book Greater: Britain After the Storm, published in 2020.
She is also the first woman to become Secretary of State for Defence in 2019. She held this position for three months, before being dismissed by Boris Johnson when he occupied the Prime Minister’s position. Several Conservative Party MPs have already expressed their support for Mordaunt.
Conclusion
- Author
Harry Evans
