The United States is undeniably a superpower with huge military strength and a massive economy that no country can match. With key roles in the UN and NATO, it wields remarkable degrees of influence on the international political scene. It is therefore unsurprising that the whole world is holding its breath when a major election is to take place on US soil, be it senatorial or presidential.
One such big event is due on November 8, 2022, when voters nationwide will determine the outcome of the US midterm elections. One-third of the Senate seats are open for a regular election, alongside all 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
The pending elections are already generating great betting heat at online sportsbooks, which makes sense considering midterm results will significantly impact the balance of power in the country. All leading bookmakers offer extensive coverage of the midterm race, trying to outcompete each other in terms of pricing and market variety.
This publication focuses on the top betting markets to follow for the US midterm elections and the odds major sportsbooks offer for this event. But before we get there, let’s examine the impact of midterm results on the overall political landscape in the US and how the 2022 elections will differ from those in 2018.
Midterm Results Can Tip the Balance of Power in the US
The midterm results in 2022 carry significant importance as they will ultimately determine which party will assume control over the upper (the Senate) and lower chamber (the House of Representatives) of the US Congress. The midterm elections will also have a pronounced impact on who will take the governor seat in thirty-six out of fifty US states.
It needs to be impossible to cheat in US elections, we cannot afford to take risks with the integrity of our elections. pic.twitter.com/hUpB6eC6D3
— Jake Evans (@JakeEvansGA) February 2, 2022
The Republicans (the GOP) and the Democrats are the two most powerful political factions in the Land of Opportunity. Each side is looking to outnumber its opponents in the two Congress chambers during midterm elections. More seats equal greater control over legislative matters like passing laws, for instance. Midterm results are important for several other reasons as you shall see below.
Midterm elections can impact the presidency of the incumbent head of state.
Midterm electoral outcomes can have a considerable influence on the remainder of the incumbent president’s term. If the head of state belongs to the party with fewer seats in the Congress, this would make it easier for the prevailing faction to interfere with his decisions and policies. The majority party in the Congress can even vote to impeach the incumbent president if he is a part of the opposite political faction and messes things up.
Midterm results can influence the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.
As we previously mentioned, thirty-six out of fifty gubernatorial seats are also up for grabs during the US midterm elections. As of January 2022, governors from the Republican Party outnumber Democratic governors at a ratio of 28 to 22.
| Map of US States Based on Governors’ Party Affiliation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Governor | State | Governor | State | Governor | State | Governor |
| AL | Kay Ivey | GA | Brian Kemp | ME | Janet Mills | NV | Stephen Sisolak |
| AK | Mike J. Dunleavy | HI | David Ige | MD | Lawrence Hogan | NH | Chris Sununu |
| AZ | Douglas Ducey | ID | Brad Little | MA | Charles Baker | NJ | Philip Murphy |
| AR | Asa Hutchinson | IL | Jay Robert Pritzker | MI | Gretchen Whitmer | NM | Michelle Grisham |
| CA | Gavin Newsom | IN | Eric Holcomb | MN | Timothy Walz | NY | Kathy Hochul |
| CO | Jared Polis | IA | Kim Reynolds | MS | Tate Reeves | NC | Roy Cooper |
| CT | Edward Lamont | KS | Laura Kelly | MO | Michael Parson | ND | Douglas Burgum |
| DE | John Carney | KY | Andrew Beshear | MT | Gregory Gianforte | OH | Mike DeWine |
| FL | Ronald DeSantis | LA | John Bel Edwards | NE | John Peter Ricketts | OK | Kevin Stitt |
| OR | Katherine Brown | RI | Daniel McKee | SD | Kristi Noem | TX | Gregory Abbott |
| PA | Tom Wolf | SC | Henry McMaster | TN | Bill Lee | UT | Spencer Cox |
| VT | Philip Scott | VA | Glenn Youngkin | WA | Jay Inslee | WV | James Justice II | WI | Anthony Evers | WY | Mark Gordon | ⇛ Denotes Republican States ⇛ Denotes Democratic States |
This ratio could spell bad news for President Biden as he belongs to the Democratic Party. If the Republicans prevail in the gubernatorial midterm races, they can upset Biden’s plans to seek another four years in the Oval Office.
2022 US elections will be held on 11/8/2022. All 435 seats in the House & 34 of 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. 39 gubernatorial & other state & local elections will also be contested.
Time to support our candidates is now! #VoteBlueIn2022 https://t.co/riIMSn8HNh pic.twitter.com/BklGzWWaWf
— 🌷Annie C🌷😷 (@anet2111) February 1, 2022
State governors play a key role in supporting the presidential candidates of their party. Governors may hold sway in the presidential elections since they often help with volunteer recruitment and fundraising through donors.
Midterm election results can affect the political landscape outside the US.
What happens on the political scene of a superpower like the US can dramatically affect global politics. US policies can impact the decision-making of foreign governments when it comes to environmental, military, trade, and diplomacy matters.
How the 2022 Midterms Will Differ from 2018?
One pattern occurs with a curious regularity when it comes to US politics. The party of the incumbent head of office almost inevitably falls behind in the midterm elections. The world observed this happening in 2006 during the second term of President Bush (R), when the Democrats won most state governorships and secured a majority in the Congress.
The story repeated itself in 2010 with President Obama’s Democratic Party when the Reds witnessed their largest gain in terms of seats since 1938. The curious tendency manifested itself again in 2018 when President Trump was in office.
Results for 2018 Senate and HoR Midterm Elections
The Republican Party was struggling amid Trump’s low approval ratings and lost the majority to the Democrats in the House of Representatives (HoR). The Democrats gained 234 HoR seats as opposed to the 201 seats won by the Republicans. For clarification, a party needs at least 218 seats in order to prevail in HoR.
"Turnout in local US elections is extraordinarily low. Less than a quarter of the adult population typically votes in elections for mayor and city council" https://t.co/jTnXFUeYJm
— Eric Budd (@ericmbudd) February 2, 2022
The 2018 midterms also saw the two rivaling parties competing for a total of 35 seats in the Senate, with the Republicans winning 11 of them compared to 24 seats won by the Democrats. Nonetheless, the Republicans managed to retain their control in the Senate as they had 42 seats that were unavailable for election.
| Seats Won per Party in the 2018 Midterm Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
| Democratic Party | Republican Party (GOP) |
| 24 out of 35 available seats | 11 out of 35 available seats |
| Seats Won per Party in the 2018 Midterm House of Representatives Election | |
| Democratic Party | Republican Party (GOP) |
| 234 out of 435 seats | 201 out of 435 seats |
*The data is courtesy of Statista
As for the 2020 elections, the Democratic Party secured three seats. Thus, they ended up with forty-eight seats plus two independent politicians who caucused with them for a total of fifty seats. The Republican Party secured the remaining fifty Senate positions after US voters cast their ballots for the 2020 elections. The balance of power is likely to flip in the 2022 midterm elections as suggested by the predictions of statisticians, bookmakers, and betting markets.
| Distribution of Republican vs. Democrat Seats in the US Senate | ||
|---|---|---|
| Party | Seats Number in January, 2019 | Seats Number Following the 2020 Election |
| Republican Senators | 53 Seats | 50 Seats |
| Democratic Senators | 45 Seats | 48 Seats |
| Independent Senators | 2 Seats | 2 Seats |
| Party Seats in Total | 100 Seats | 100 Seats |
*The data is courtesy of independent political site Ballotpedia.
Betting Predictions for the 2022 Gubernatorial Elections
While the media coverage focus tends to shift on Senate and House elections, the control of 36 gubernatorial offices will also be on the ballot in 2022. The Democrats and the Republicans will have twenty and sixteen seats to defend on November 8, respectively, not counting the US territories.
Despite receiving less coverage, state-level elections should not be underestimated as governors have a say in important tax, education, and health care matters. Additionally, they can propose bills, pass them into law, and appoint state justices.
🚨EXCLUSIVE: @TedCruz Gives 2022 Predictions
“I’m very optimistic…I think 2022 is gonna be a wave election…I would put the odds at 90-10 that we take back the House, and the Senate I would put the odds at about 50-50.”
Watch our full interview now:
👉https://t.co/7Ki2muMGHh pic.twitter.com/GPBdkMILKT
— The Truth Gazette (@Truth_Gazette) January 3, 2022
Last but not least, governors can also lend a helping hand to the presidential candidates of their parties during the campaigning process. Given their considerable influence, it is unsurprising that bookies have already started to post odds for the gubernatorial races in key states.
| Betting Odds* for the 2022 Gubernatorial Elections in the US | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | A Republican Win | A Democrat Win | Any Other Win |
| Arizona | 1.67 59.9%** | 2.1 47.6% | 34 2.9% |
| Colorado | 2.5 40% | 1.45 69% | 34 2.9% |
| Florida | 1.22 82% | 3.6 27.8% | 34 2.9% |
| Kansas | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 34 2.9% |
| Maryland | 3.0 33.3% | 1.3 76.9% | 34 2.9% |
| Massachusetts | 2.7 37% | 1.36 73.5% | 34 2.9% |
| Michigan | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 34 2.9% |
| Nevada | 2.2 45.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 34 2.9% |
| New Hampshire | 1.14 87.7% | 4.2 4.2% | 34 2.9% |
| Pennsylvania | 1.83 54.6% | 1.8 55.6% | 34 2.9% |
*Odds information is courtesy of 22Bet.
**The percentages are indicative of the implied probability of each outcome.
Judging by the odds above, bookmakers are confident Republican candidates stand better chances of taking control over the governor office in states like Florida, Arizona, and New Hampshire. Oddsmakers predict the Democratic candidates have a higher implied probability of winning in Massachusetts and Maryland, both of which have a long history of blue support.
Pennsylvania and Michigan are swing states, meaning that their voters have consistently swayed between the blue and red parties during elections. Kansas, traditionally red, is likely to also become a battleground in the 2022 governor elections, hence the coinciding odds.
How Will Senate Elections Unfold in Individual States?
Under Section 3 of Article I of the United States Constitution, each US state should have two representatives in the Senate for a term of six years. With 34 senatorial seats up for grabs (14 Democrat and 20 Republican), November will witness one hot race for control over the upper chamber of the US Congress. The terms of this year’s winners will last from early January 2023 to early January 2029.
Unsurprisingly, online sportsbooks are not missing on the action, offering odds for how the 2022 Senate elections will pan out in individual states. Below are the lines on which party will prevail in the elections for the US Senate in Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, among other states, as quoted by the overseas bookmaker BetOnline.
| Betting Odds for 2022 Senate Election Results in Key US States | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Odds for the Democrats Winning | Odds for the Republicans Winning | Implied Probability of the Democrats Winning | Implied Probability of the Republicans Winning |
| Florida | 5.25 | 1.12 | 19% | 89.3% |
| Georgia | 2.4 | 1.55 | 41.7% | 64.5% |
| Nevada | 2.5 | 1.5 | 40% | 66.7% |
| New Hampshire | 1.71 | 2.0 | 58.5% | 50% |
| North Carolina | 5.0 | 1.14 | 20% | 87.7% |
| Ohio | 8.0 | 1.05 | 12.5% | 95.2% |
| Wisconsin | 3.4 | 1.26 | 29.4% | 79.4% |
| Arizona | 2.2 | 1.62 | 45.5% | 61.7% |
| Pennsylvania | 2.0 | 1.71 | 50% | 58.5% |
*Odds information is courtesy of BetOnline.
Betting Markets for the 2022 House Elections
November will bring in lots of betting action at online sportsbooks, with the 2022 House of Representatives election being one of the most anticipated events among political bettors. The big question is will the Democrats succeed in strengthening their hold in the House or will their red rivals win the majority.
Oddsmakers and prediction markets alike have already jumped on the bandwagon with prices for this highly anticipated event. Looking at the odds, most leading bookies lean toward the Republicans regaining their ground in the House, citing prices for this outcome within the range of 1.12 to 1.17.
These odds indicate a decisive edge for the Republican Party whose chances of reclaiming the lead fluctuate between 85.5% and 89.3%. Representatives of the consulting company FP1 Strategies are also confident we will see a red wave rising in November. Republican strategist Corwin Bliss believes the party will manage to prevail as a result of the somber moods the pandemic and inflation have fueled in the country.
Nonetheless, it is not entirely impossible for the Democratic Party to pull off the upset. This might happen under several conditions, starting with the incumbent president’s supporters showing up at the polls in late fall. Sometimes winning in elections is more about voter rallying than their political ideology. The pandemic and inflation dropping down to manageable levels by November may also tip the scales in favor of the Democrats.
| Betting Odds for the 2022 US House of Representatives Elections | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | William Hill | Coral | BetFred | Ladbrokes | BetOnline |
| The GOP Wins the Majority | 1.17 85.5% | 1.13 88.9% | 1.14 87.5% | 1.13 88.9% | 1.12 89.3% |
| The Democrats Win the Majority | 5.00 20% | 5.5 18.2% | 5.5 18.2% | 5.5 18.2% | 5.25 19% |
| No Majority | 67 1.5% | N/A | 101 1% | N/A | N/A |
Betting Markets for the 2022 Senate Elections
Leading bookmakers and poll pundits appear unanimous that the Republicans are in a solid position to reclaim both the House and the Senate, assuming control of the 118th US Congress. Judging by the prices oddsmakers quote, the GOP holds an edge to take the Senate by gaining more than fifty seats.
The stakes will be rather high this November. If analysts and bookies prove right and the Republicans gain the majority, this would have a pronounced effect on the incumbent president’s further performance as well as on his chances of reelection in 2024.
US-facing book BetOnline has altogether dismissed this as a possibility and does not post prices for the GOP gaining exactly fifty seats. The Democratic Party is getting poorer odds for achieving a majority, with pricing that ranges from 3.50 to 6.50 at premier online sportsbooks.
| Betting Odds for the 2022 Senate Elections in the US | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | William Hill | Ladbrokes | Coral | BetOnline |
| GOP Majority | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.25 80% |
| Democratic Majority | 6.50 15.4% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.50 15.4% | 3.50 28.6% |
| GOP with Precisely 50 Seats | 4.50 22.2% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.50 22.2% | N/A |
It remains to be seen whether bookies’ predictions will prove accurate in November. Political punters have plenty of time to decide who to back until then and develop betting strategies for the 2022 midterm election markets. Some pointers we can give you are to look at aspects like candidate recruitments, election results from previous years, campaign funding, and overall voter moods.
- Author
Olivia Cole
