The French presidential elections that will take place in April are by no means expected to be boring, and who will face the incumbent president in the runoff is the question people keep on asking themselves. There is no shortage of candidates who have already thrown their hats in the ring, claiming that they can oust Mr. Macron, which makes the situation all the more intense.
Even though the Head of State is not yet a candidate, it seems that he is bound to seek a second and final term. These are indeed the most consequential elections that will be held in France in decades, and it is no surprise that the event does not fly off the radar of bookmakers.
Mr. Macron is given a commanding position in polls, and he is not only expected to pass the first round but win the elections. Read ahead to learn more about the candidates that lead the race and the betting odds bookmakers provide.
French Presidential Elections: The Unresolved Issues
Even though Mr. Macron was slammed because of the Covid measures he introduced, his closest opponents Valérie Pécresse and Marine Le Pen are not expected to gather enough support and take up his place. Thus, since none of the candidates seems likely to get an outright majority, a runoff is a racing certainty.
According to a recently conducted survey, around 45% of the French will go to the ballots on the first round of the presidential elections, even though they are greatly concerned about the spiking prices and growing inflation.
The way in which the campaign will pan out is largely determined by the decision that Pécresse and Le Pen should challenge Mr. Macron who has been serving as president since 2017. It is interesting to point out that this year, France might see its first female presidential candidate in the face of Pécresse, who is the moderate chief of the Paris region.
The first round of the presidential elections will take place on the 10th of April, and if no candidate gets a landslide, the runoff will take place on the 24th of April. Polls show that Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are the most likely candidates for office who will seek the voter’s support in the runoff. While the first round of the presidential elections is free-for-all contenders, only the two candidates that collect the most votes make it to the runoff. According to the French laws, all would-be nominees need to present the 500 signatures that support their run for president up to the 4th of March.
The list of the competitors was published a few days ago after the Les Republican Party’s candidate Valerie Pecresse was introduced. Le Pen, who was Macron’s opponent from the runoff back in 2017, also launched her campaign a few days ago. Even though Macron is yet to do so, he is assumed to run for a second term, thus becoming the first one to assume the presidency twice during the last two decades.
It turns out that Mr. Macrons has not yet declared his candidacy because the Coronavirus pandemic and the crisis between Russia and Ukraine are issues that need to be given the full attention of the current Head of State. Yet, some of the president’s opponents expressed their opinion that Mr. Macron wants to keep the ball rolling and take advantage of his office without declaring his candidacy.
At this point, seeing a left-wing candidate in the runoff is highly unlikely, still less becoming the next French president, and getting a runaway victory like François Mitterrand and François Hollande once did is not on the cards. The run-ins in the left make matters even worse, and although their supporters insist on unity, the bitter disagreements over the best left-wing candidate exacerbate the situation. The falling-out between the Greens and the Socialists is all about their candidates Anne Hidalgo and Yannick Jadot, and more specifically, which nominee is better.
Anna Agueb-Porterie, Charlotte Marchandise, and Pierre Larroutourou are also among the said left-wing candidates, which further adds to voters’ confusion because of their hugely divergent platforms. The ex-minister Arnaud Montebourg, on the other hand, chose not to run for the presidential elections as, in his opinion, there were already enough pretenders.
In addition to Anne Hidalgo and Yannick Jadot who are said to be the true left-wing candidates, Fabien Roussel, who is the party leader of the Communist Party, is expected to get around 3% according to the polls.
Philippe Poutou and anti-capitalists Nathalie Arthaud are the other candidates who will run for the elections this April.
What Polls Show about France’s Next President
When it comes to the first-round preferences, forecasts say that Emmanuel Macron’s chances to make it to the runoff are the highest. The former economy minister under the presidency of François Hollande is expected to maintain power even though his style of governance did not get unanimous approval, and as a result, his rating has declined dramatically to just 40%. Besides, he was also slammed from the right and left for the policies he introduced while in office.
In spite of the fact that initially, Macron did not have the backing of any of the major parties, he assumed the presidency, and within a couple of weeks, voters will express their opinion about his first term and whether he deserves a second one.
According to the latest polls, Mr. Macron’s chances to progress to the second round have gone over 20%. Figures indicate that at this time, Marine Le Pen comes closely after the current president, and her chances are slightly over 17%. This will be Le Pen’s third bid to the presidency, and most experts expect that during the campaign, she will cling to her usual course of action and will mainly focus on holding back immigration.
President Emmanuel Macron would face conservative candidate Valerie Pecresse and defeat her in a runoff if elections were held now, according to a new poll https://t.co/zqzuee0Cb4
— Bloomberg (@business) February 5, 2022
Today, the budget minister under Nicolas Sarkozy’s presidency Valerie Pecresse ranks third, and her chances to enter the runoff are slightly more than 16%. If she becomes France’s first woman president, Pecresse insists that she will reform the pension system, growing pile of debt, the insufficient control over borders, cope with the neighborhoods where lawlessness prevails, which are some of the promises Macron made and, in her words, he did not live up to.
One of the candidates that intend to stand as an independent is Eric Zemmour. The views of the far-right politician are hugely considered to be controversial, and a fine was imposed on him after he was found guilty of giving a speech, in which he incites racial hatred. According to polls, the first-round preferences for him are around 13%.
Figures show that Jean-Luc Mélenchon currently takes fifth place, and his chances are rated at slightly less than 10%. This year, Melechon will not run for office for the first time as he did so in 2017 and 2012, and in both cases, the support he got from voters was around 10%.
Latest French poll for April elections
Leading Current Pdt Macron 24%
Challenging Right-Wing Pécresse 16.5%
Next challengers
Old Far-Right Le Pen 14%
New Far-Right Zemmour 14%Leading Left
Radical Left Mélenchon 9%
Green Left Jadot 8%NB: SD &socialists are out pic.twitter.com/0gNY9OHHWu
— Jean-Michel Glachant (@JMGlachant) February 5, 2022
The green candidate Yannic Jados is expected to get the support of around 5.2% of the voters, while polls show that Anne Hidalgo is most likely to get the support of around 2.8% of French voters. It is interesting to point out that Hidalgo became Paris’ first female mayor, and since 2020, she has been serving her second term in office.
There are several other possible runners, including Nathalie Arthaud, Jean Lassale, Fabien Roussel, Arnaud Montebourg but their names are not added to the roster since the support they get does not go over the 3% threshold.
| First Round of The Presidential Elections 2022 | |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 24% |
| Le Pen | 17% |
| Pecresse | 16% |
| Melenchon | 10% |
| Zemmour | 13% |
| Hidalgo | 3% |
| Jadot | 5% |
| First Round of The Presidential Elections 2017 | |
|---|---|
| Macron | 24% |
| Le Pen | 21.3% |
| Fillon | 20% |
| Melenchon | 19.6% |
| Hamon | 6.4% |
| French Presidential Elections Runoff 2017 | |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 66.1% |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.9% |
| French Presidential Elections Runoff 2022 Polls | |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 56% |
| Marine Le Pen | 44% |
Why Emmanuel Macron Might Lose The Presidential Elections
Unlike the UK, where an immediate succession seems imminent, the geographical, social, and economic matters the French are most concerned about are similar to those Brits pay close attention to. Some of the issues that matter most to the French and therefore need to be carefully considered include the cost of living, migration, climate, and the country’s place in the world.
The question of identity is expected to loom during the campaign, and along with it, the candidates in the elections should also attempt to explain whether France is still a global power or its role on the map has significantly changed.
Does one of Macron’s opponents stand the chance to beat him is another question many people seem to be asking themselves. As it stands, he has almost no grounds to fear the left, and as we said earlier, it is divided into fractions as ever, as the fingers on your one hand are not enough to count the contenders.
Even though the country is best known for its labor protections and generous social welfare policies, the far-right also enjoys great support in France, and such views have become mainstream during the campaign. The candidates that insist on a tough line on security and immigration are now growing in popularity, according to polls.
NEW: The far-right has weaponized France's complex history integrating immigrants from its former colonial empire to attack establishment politicians like President Emmanuel Macron. It makes headlines, but experts say its not likely to win elections: https://t.co/BMsgQuqwAr
— Matthew Kendrick (@matt__kendrick) February 1, 2022
Eric Ciotti goes even further and supports the idea that people from other countries have taken up the places of the French. Valérie Pécresse, on the other hand, insists that French laws should be applied with priority over the EU legislation. Additionally, she takes a harsh position on jihadism. In her words, even though there are a lot of ifs about the elections, she is the only candidate who can beat Mr. Macron because of her broad experience.
In the 2022 French presidential elections, incumbent president Emanual Macron leads the polls with a steady 24 percent.
The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and the conservative Valérie Pécresse are in a tight contest for the second position with 17 and 16 percent respectively. pic.twitter.com/YUe3WX0Cnt
— POLITICO Poll of Polls (@pollofpolls_EU) February 2, 2022
Even though polls show that Macron is well ahead of the other candidates who are running for office, the meet-the-people tours he went on last year did not go that well. Mr. Macron’s reelection bid will be hugely influenced by his attempts to deal with the immigrant crisis and become a leader who pays significant attention to law and order.
Mr. Macron goes out of his way to deliver on his promise to deal with Islamic separatism and endorse secular values, but the spread of the Coronavirus poses a serious challenge as well. The issues at home and abroad, however, are what might tip the scales in favor of another of the candidates who are running for office. Even if none of the candidates manages to dethrone the current Head of State, Mr. Macron himself might pose the biggest threat to his own campaign.
When he ran for his first term, Mr. Macron’s position on immigration was not that firm, his attitude has changed as he even went to increase the budget for law enforcement. Now, many people think that he attempts to play by ear and simply attempts to address the matters people are more concerned about.
" Le Pen has the best chances of making it into the 2nd round of #France's presidential elections against #Macron … " https://t.co/qPVneIpTcN pic.twitter.com/wAO1T2tyml
— Instinct and Data Creates Magic (@Flemington455) February 4, 2022
Right-wing themes dominate the campaign also because the left failed to agree on a single candidate and as a result, the support for the left-wing candidates for the presidency does not go over 10%. The growing dominance of the far-right ideas can also be ascribed to the fact that politicians that talk about climate change have allowed room in the campaign.
A lot can change until April, and voters seem to be much less mobilized to support the candidates. The highest rates of abstention can be seen among the supporters of the left-wing ideas, still more among young voters.
Has Macron’s Approval Rating Changed
Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating has significantly changed since 2017 when he assumed the presidency. Figures show that in May 2017, around 66% of the French people approved of Mr. Macron, while around 30% of them did not. In the next few months, his approval was significantly reduced, and in October, it reached 44%. Those who disapproved of him were around 55%.
In spite of the slight increase in the approval rate of Mr. Macron at the beginning of 2018, a downward trend was observed in the next few months, and back in December 2018, only 23% of the people approved of his course of action, which was his all-time low approval between 2017 and 2020. Just for comparison, back then, the disapproval of the Head of State skyrocketed to 76%. In 2019 and 2020, Mr. Macron’s approval rate went through periods of increases and decreases, and in April 2020, it reached 46%.
It turns out that the approval rate of the president has gone up and down more frequently during the first three years of his presidency. The figures for 2020 show that society had polarized opinions about Mr. Macron’s policies. At the start of the year, his approval rate was around 40%, and it dropped to 37% in August. The president’s approval rating did not go through the ceiling until the end of the year, and it fluctuated around 40%.
In the first days of 2022, Mr. Macron’s approval rate remains hugely unchanged as it is around 40%, while the share of people who do not support him is around 58%.
Next French President Betting Odds
There are less than three months until the French presidential elections, and most bookmakers have already introduced betting markets to punters to enjoy. Even though Mr. Macron’s popularity is slipping a bit, most polls predict that he will win a second term, which is also reflected by the betting odds.
The candidate who will come second and will go to the runoff together with Mr. Macron is yet another event bookmakers are busy with. The left seems incapable of rallying around one of the candidates, which is the reason why seeing a right-wing contender in the runoff appears to be on the cards.
What Do Bookmakers Say About The First Round
- 22bet
| Candidates To Reach the Second Round | |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 1.04 |
| Valerie Pecresse | 2.488 |
| Jean-Luc Melenchon | 16 |
| Francois Asselineau | 41 |
| Anne Hidalgo | 67 |
| Marine Le Pen | 2 |
| Eric Zemmour | 4.86 |
| Christiane Taubira | 40 |
| Yannick Jadot | 66 |
| Emmanuel Macron 1st Round Vote Share | |
|---|---|
| 20-25% | 2.184 |
| 25-30% | 2.488 |
| 15-20% | 5.45 |
| 30-35% | 11 |
| Under 15% | 29 |
| Over 35% | 33 |
- Coral
| Candidate to reach the final 2 | |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 1.06 |
| Eric Zemmour | 5.00 |
| Marine Le Pen | 2.00 |
| Jean-Luc Melenchon | 15.00 |
| Valerie Pecresse | 2.63 |
| Anne Hidalgo | 67.00 |
| Yanick Jadot | 51.00 |
| Christiane Taubira | 21.00 |
| Francois Asselineau | 41.00 |
| Macron’s first-round vote share | |
|---|---|
| Under 15% | 17.00 |
| 15-20% | 5.5 |
| 20-25% | 2.25 |
| 25-30% | 3.25 |
| 30-35% | 11.00 |
| Over 35% | 34.00 |
- Betfred
| To finish in the final 2 | |
|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 1.06 |
| Marine Le Pen | 1.95 |
| Valerie Pecresse | 2.63 |
| Eric Zemmour | 4.5 |
| Jean-Luc Melenchon | 13.00 |
| Yannick Jadot | 51.00 |
| Anne Hidalgo | 51.00 |
- Betway
| Macron first-round vote percentage | |
|---|---|
| Vote percentage under 15% | 15.00 |
| Vote percentage 15-19.99% | 9.00 |
| Vote percentage 20-24.99% | 2.32 |
| Vote percentage 25-29.99% | 2.62 |
| Vote percentage 30-34.99% | 6.50 |
| Vote percentage 35-39.99% | 13.00 |
| Vote percentage 40-44.99% | 26.00 |
| Vote percentage 45-49.99% | 34.00 |
| Vote percentage over 50% | 51.00 |
| French Elections Winning Party | |
|---|---|
| En Marche! | 1.36 |
| The Republicans | 4.75 |
| Rassemblement National | 10.00 |
| La France Insoumise | 26.00 |
| Socialist Party | 51.00 |
| Debout la France | 101.00 |
- Ladbrokes
| Macron First Round Voice Share | |
|---|---|
| 20-25% | 2.25 |
| 25-30% | 2.63 |
| 15-20% | 5.5 |
| 30-35% | 11.00 |
| Under 15% | 17.00 |
| Over 35% | 34.00 |
| To reach the final 2 | |
|---|---|
| Emmanel Macron | 1.06 |
| Marine Le Pen | 2.00 |
| Valerie Pecresse | 3.25 |
| Eric Zemmour | 5.00 |
| Jean-Luc Melenchon | 15.00 |
| Christiane Taubira | 21.00 |
| Francois Asselineau | 41.00 |
| Yanick Jadot | 51.00 |
| Anne Hidalgo | 67.00 |
French Presidential Elections Winner According To Bookmakers
| 22bet | Sky Bet | Paddy Power | William Hill | Betfair | Coral | Unibet | MansionBet | Betfred | 10bet | |
| Emmanuel Macron | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.04 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.36 |
| Marine Le Pen | 9.9 | 11.00 | 10.00 | 2.00 | 10.00 | 12.00 | 15.00 | 10.00 | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| Jean-Luc Melenchon | 33.00 | 21.00 | 34.00 | 17.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 51.00 | 26.00 | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| Benoit Hamon | 51.00 | 51.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 67.00 | N/A | N/A |
| Eric Piolle | 67.00 | 67.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Edouard Philippe | 100 | 34 | 101 | N/A | 101 | 201 | N/A | 34.00 | 101.00 | 34.00 |
| Yannic Jadot | 100 | 101 | N/A | 67.00 | N/A | 201 | N/A | N/A | 101.00 | N/A |
| Francois Asselineau | 101 | 101 | 101 | 41.00 | 101 | 101 | 501.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Florian Philippot | 101 | 67.00 | 101 | N/A | 101 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Arnaud Montebourg | 101 | 101 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 101 | 101 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 67.00 | N/A | 67.00 |
| David Lisnard | 101 | 101 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Valerie Pecresse | 4.88 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 2.50 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| Eric Zemmour | 12.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 5.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 15.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| Pierre de Villiers | 34.00 | 34.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Xavier Bertrand | 51.00 | 51.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 19.00 | N/A | 19.00 |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 81.00 | 81.00 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51.00 | N/A | N/A |
| Anne Hidalgo | 100 | 41.00 | 101 | 67.00 | 101 | 201 | 251.00 | 41.00 | 101.00 | 41.00 |
| Nicolas Sarkozy | 101 | 101 | 101 | N/A | 101 | N/A | N/A | 101.00 | N/A | 101.00 |
| Nicolas Dupont Aignan | 101 | 67.00 | 101 | N/A | 101 | N/A | 501.00 | 67.00 | N/A | 67.00 |
| Michel Barnier | 101 | 51.00 | 101 | N/A | 101 | N/A | N/A | 51.00 | N/A | 51.00 |
| Francois Baroin | 101 | 101 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 41.00 | N/A | 41.00 |
| Bruno Retailleau | 101 | 101 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Francois Hollande | 126 | 101 | 101 | N/A | 126 | N/A | N/A | 101.00 | N/A | 101.00 |
*Odds may vary from the date of writing
**This information is provided for informative purposes only and does not promote gambling activities
- Author
Harry Evans
