The past few months have not been kind to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He is quickly losing the support of his own party’s MPs due to a series of scandals, and the public’s opinion of him has also been on a downward slope. All of this could culminate in him being ousted from his position prior to the general elections scheduled to happen in May 2024. If this happens, he is unlikely to remain the Conservatives’ candidate when the future elections take place.
This is not to say there have been no attempts at remedying the situation. On the contrary, Mr. Johnson undertook a small-scale reshuffling this February, and attended a PMQ event during which he announced that Covid restrictions are to be lifted early and made an important clarification regarding the upcoming Sue Grey report. Moreover, the February MP recess could be beneficial for Mr. Johnson. MP frustration will have the chance to simmer down throughout this period and he might be able to win back more of his former supporters.
Things remain uncertain, however, and if Conservative MPs do not warm up to the PM and events continue as is, we will likely see someone else representing the Tory party sooner than later.
Partygate and How it Affected Boris Johnson’s Integrity
Boris Johnson has been known to be a controversial figure throughout the majority of his political career, but things took a turn for the worse when news of his latest scandal broke out, which is now aptly named “partygate”.
The situation revolves around a series of social gatherings allegedly held at 10 Downing Street and government buildings between May 2020 and April 2021. At the time, Covid 19 regulations were in force in the UK due to the spread of the virus, and UK residents were under strict instructions to not mix households indoors.
At first, the prime minister denied the accusations, but photographic evidence emerged, showing that, allegedly, the parties not only took place with his knowledge but that he had attended as well. The public was and still is justifiably upset, as are members of parliament who have, on numerous occasions, vocally expressed their disappointment with Mr. Johnson’s behaviour.
Between this and concerns over the UK energy bill crisis, as well as the North Shropshire loss for the Conservatives, Mr. Johnson’s supporters are on the decline. Already, there have been letters sent to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee urging for a no confidence vote.
I have never taken such action before and had hoped that I would not be put in such an invidious position. Whilst I am conscious that others will disagree with me, I believe that this is in the best interests of the country, the Government and the Conservative Party. (3/3)
— Peter Aldous (@peter_aldous) February 1, 2022
Subsequent Scandals and the Fallout
Amid the partygate allegations, another misconduct unfolded. This time, Boris Johnson made accusations towards Labour Party leader Keir Starmer regarding his apparent failure to convict criminal Jimmy Savile during his trials. Mr. Starmer had been director of public prosecutions at the time, and Mr. Johnson alluded to a far-right conspiracy theory that the current Labour Party leader had aided Savile in not facing justice. These statements are not based on facts, but they nonetheless lead to Keir Starmer being attacked by an angry anti-vaxxer mob near parliament.
Boris Johnson’s failure to properly retract his statements and apologise for the incident was seen as unprofessional and irresponsible, which culminated in a number of his aides leaving their posts. One of them was Munira Mirza, who had been a part of Johnson’s team for 14 years.
Other members of the Tory Party also condemned Johnson’s actions, including former government chief whip Julian Smith.
What happened to Keir Starmer tonight outside parliament is appalling. It is really important for our democracy & for his security that the false Savile slurs made against him are withdrawn in full.
— Julian Smith MP (@JulianSmithUK) February 7, 2022
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak stated “I wouldn’t have said it” when asked about the situation during a press conference that aired on television. Although he himself still supports Johnson despite the issues at hand, the same cannot be said about other members of parliament. The current PM is deemed as unfit to lead the Tory Party by many, and as established, talks of a vote of no confidence have already emerged, with MPs such as Peter Aldous, Gary Streeter, Tobias Ellwood, and Douglas Ross among others making their submissions to the 1922 Committee public.
Evidently, between this and partygate, it is clear that Mr. Johnson started losing support left and right. This also includes Tory donors, and billionaire John Armitage proclaimed that he will cease any further donations to the party until further notice.
Of course, some have refrained from addressing any of the issues directly, and would prefer to wait for Sue Grey’s full report regarding the gatherings related to the partygate scandal. Thankfully, Johnson confirmed that the full report will be made public when available. He was prompted to officially clarify his stance on the matter by Member of Parliament Mark Harper during the PMQs event held on February 9th, who had asked Mr. Johnoson the same question a week prior but had not received a clear answer. The second response was deemed satisfactory.
It may have taken 9 days, but it's good to get a clear commitment from the PM at the despatch box that Sue Gray’s report will be published *in full*.
This stuff matters.
It’s about those who make the law holding themselves to higher standards than the rest of the population. https://t.co/hmITSbzNSO pic.twitter.com/0fUiAtG8t6
— Mark Harper (@Mark_J_Harper) February 9, 2022
There is also the possibility that the February parliament recess will allow for MPs’ anger to subside, which might give Johnson the chance to prove himself. It is still early to say if this will work out well for him, however, and for now, doubts regarding his leadership continue to circulate among Tory party members.
No Confidence Vote and the Possibility of an Early Election
Currently, the UK General elections operate under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act which commenced in 2011. It dictates that a parliament is to stay in power for 5 years before elections may commence, and was put into place because the previous system had what many considered significant flaws. First and foremost, it gave the prime minister direct control over when the next general elections would be held. This is due to the fact that the subsequent general elections would happen on the behalf of royal prerogative proclamation, and the royal family would follow the advice of the PM.
As for why things are considered to be better currently, the PM does not have as much control as before. For elections to be held, a no confidence in government vote must be held, but we should emphasise that there is a difference between a vote of no confidence in the parliament, and a vote of no confidence in a party leader specifically.
The former, if it were to occur, would lead to an election. This begs the question, will an early election happen in 2022? It is difficult to say, but for now, it seems very unlikely.
What does seem like a real possibility, however, is the aforementioned no confidence vote with Johnson as the target for replacement. Namely, Conservative members of parliament can submit no confidence letters to the 1922 Committee regarding Boris Johnson’s position as a prime minister. The number needs to reach 54, i.e. 15% of all of the party’s members, for a vote to take place. If Boris Johnson loses the vote, he is out, and a contest will be held to determine the new party leader and PM with Mr. Johnson being unable to become a candidate.
This would not be the first time a PM has faced a vote of no confidence, and there is no guarantee that if the vote were to take place, Mr. Johnson would lose. Just a few years prior, PM Theresa May was subject to and subsequently won a no-confidence vote, and she is far from the only one.
| PMs Who Have Faced a No Confidence Vote | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | PM | Lost/Won |
| 1924 | Stanley Baldwin | Lost |
| 1924 | Ramsay MacDonald | Lost |
| 1940 | Neville Chamberlain | Win |
| 1945 | Clement Attlee | Win |
| 1952 | Sir Winston Churchill | Win |
| 1956 | Sir Anthony Eden | Win |
| 1962 | Harold Macmillan | Win |
| 1964; 1965; 1967 | Harold Wilson | Win |
| 1972; 1973 | Sir Edward Heath | Win |
| 1976/; 1977; 1979 | Jim Callaghan | Lost |
| 1980, 1981, 1985,1990 | Margaret Thatcher | Win |
| 1992; 1993 | John Major | Win |
| 2018 | Theresa May | Win |
As evident, few prime ministers have lost a no confidence vote despite the numerous times such a vote has taken place. Regardless, there is also no guarantee that Mr. Johnson will not become one of the outliers, especially if public and MP opinions of him continue to go downhill. As established, this would also make him an unappealing candidate to represent the Conservative party during the next UK elections.
Boris Johnson’s Odds of Leaving Before the Next Elections and Alternative Tory Party Leader Odds
Mr. Johnson is in a risky spot and, already, sportsbooks have begun to offer bets on when he will be forced to step down from his position as PM. At the time of writing, this is how the situation is perceived by prognosis experts at popular sportsbooks:
| Boris Johnson Exit Date Odds | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| William Hill | 1/2 | 4/1 | 11/4 |
| Ladbrokes | 4/9 | 3/1 | 11/2 |
| Betfair | 1/2 | 11/2 | 9/4 |
| Mr Green | 3/5 | 6/5 | N/A |
| BetVictor | 4/11 | 5/1 | 3/1 |
For now, the odds indicate that the most likely outcome is that he will leave his position sometime during 2022.
There is also a lot of uncertainty surrounding the next UK elections and whether or not he will be the party’s candidate. Due to current circumstances, experts at William Hill and Ladbrokes predict that the Tory Party being represented by someone else is more likely.
| Boris Johnson to be Conservative Party Leader at the Next UK General Election Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook | To Not Be Leader | To Be Leader |
| William Hill | 2/9 | 3/1 |
| Ladbrokes | 1/5 | 10/3 |
Back to his current position, there are alternative choices if push comes to shove and resignation or ousting become inevitable. Below, we will focus on the odds of the top 5 possible candidates who could succeed Mr. Johnson.
As always, remember that sportsbook odds are not static and are subject to change. Therefore, those who wish to partake in wagering on the possible outcomes must carefully check the odds at their bookmakers of choice before they place their bets.
| Next Conservative Party Leader | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook | Rishi Sunak | Liz Truss | Jeremy Hunt | Tom Tugendhat | Penny Mordaunt |
| William Hill | 11/8 | 11/2 | 7/1 | 7/1 | 10/1 |
| Ladbrokes | 6/1 | 6/1 | 8/1 | 7/1 | 10/1 |
| Bet365 | 13/8 | 11/2 | 7/1 | 8/1 | 9/1 |
| PaddyPower | 13/8 | 5/1 | 6/1 | 7/1 | 10/1 |
| 888sport | 5/4 | 5/1 | 6/1 | 13/2 | 10/1 |
| Betfair | 13/8 | 5/1 | 6/1 | 7/1 | 10/1 |
| Unibet | 5/4 | 9/2 | 13/2 | 5/1 | 9/1 |
| MrGreen | 5/4 | 9/2 | 13/2 | 5/1 | 9/1 |
| MansionBet | 6/4 | 5/1 | 13/2 | 13/2 | 10/1 |
| BetVictor | 6/4 | 5/1 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 10/1 |
The first and most favourable potential successor is Rishi Sunak, also referred to as “Dishy Rishy” by his supporters. He is a UK-born Winchester and Stanford Graduate who was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2020. Mr. Sunak’s serious and hard-working attitude strongly contrasts Johnson’s “Trumpian” behaviour, which makes him a welcome alternative. His jobs retention programme also did wonders for his popularity.
Next in line is Liz Truss, whose support for Mr. Johnson has been unwavering but it is undeniable that she is also a very popular candidate to be his successor. Her reputation as a firm supporter of Tory values and Brexit have left her quite favoured among Conservatives as shown in poll results at the website Conservative Home. She is also one of the longest-serving parliament ministers, and has been known to take inspiration from former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Jeremy Hunt tends to land the third spot at sportsbooks recently, and in an interview for the House political magazine, he stated “I won’t say my ambition has completely vanished, but it would take a lot to persuade me to put my hat into the ring”. The former Tory leader candidate has been known to criticise the current government’s decisions, especially in matters regarding the Covid health crisis. His experience is greatly valued, which makes him an overall appealing candidate.
After telling Times Radio that “it would be a huge privilege” to become the next Tory leader, Tom Tugendhat is by far the most daring of all potential options. He served in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and after his departure, was elected as the MP for Tonbridge and Malling in Kent. In addition, he is against heavy Covid restrictions which has garnered support from fellow Conservative members of parliament.
To summarise, there is no shortage of candidates who could rise to his position and who would, in the eyes of numerous MPs, do a far better job to boot. Although Mr. Johnson still has reasonable chances of retaining his position as PM and thus being able to represent the Conservative party as the Tory candidate during the next UK elections, the path ahead of him is rocky and the odds so far point towards him leaving before the 2024 elections.
- Author
Olivia Cole
